Bonds remained mostly range-bound through November although the 2-5 year segment rallied on the
increased liquidity possibly due to RBI's FX intervention resulting in a marginal steepening of the curve.
While the 10 year Government bond benchmark ended the month 3bps higher at 5.91%, the 5 year
government bond ended 15bps lower at 5.03%.
The government announced its 3rd set of fiscal measures aimed primarily at stressed sectors, urban
consumption and employment generation. The fiscal cost of these measures amounts to INR 2.65trn, i.e.
~1.4% of GDP, but the current year's budgetary impact is estimated between 0.5% to 0.6% of GDP. Some
of the measures are listed as below:
▶ Government launched a credit guarantee support for 26 stressed sectors identified by Kamath
Committee along with health sector with credit outstanding of above INR 0.5bn and upto INR 5.0bn
as on February 29, 2020. The tenor of additional credit provided is for 5 years with 1 year moratorium
and 4 year of repayment.
▶ An additional INR 180bn was provided for the affordable urban housing scheme is intended to help
start 1.2mn new houses/finish 1.8mn, implying a subsidy of INR 60-100k/ house. INR 100bn was added
to the NREGA budget.
▶ The INR 3,000bn ECLGS (Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme) announced for entities such
as MSME's, business enterprises and individuals was extended till Mar-21 from a previous revision of
Nov-20.
▶ Subsidies for fertilizers: Provision of INR 650bn was made in order to ensure adequate and timely
availability of fertilizers to farmers in the upcoming crop season.
▶ Equity Infusion in NIIF (National Investment and Infrastructure Fund) Debt Platform: NIIF will provide
infrastructure project financing to the tune of INR 1,100bn by 2025. The government will invest INR
60bn as equity and the rest of the equity will be raised from private investors.
▶ Extension of PLI (production-linked incentive) scheme to 10 sectors: The government extended
the PLI scheme to 10 sectors with incentives amounting to INR 1460bn over the next five years
to promote domestic manufacturing. Earlier the government had approved PLI scheme for mobile
phones, pharmaceutical products and medical devices at a cost of INR 514bn.
October CPI inflation rose to 7.61% higher than market expectations & a slightly downward revised print
of 7.27% in September amidst an increase in momentum across Food & core components. Food inflation
rose 11.1% (10.7% in September) led by vegetables (22.5%), meat and fish (18.7%), egg (21.8%), pulses
and products (18.3%), oils and fats (15.2%), and spices (11.3%). Core inflation rose to 5.5% and was led by
inflation in the personal care segment (12.1%) and transport and communication segment (11.2%). Prices
of petrol (10%), gold (34%), and diesel (9%) were some of the major contributors to core inflation
Headline industrial production entered positive territory in September after contracting for six straight
months, printing at 0.2% YoY (better than expected), compared to a 7.4% YoY (revised higher) contraction
in August. On a sectoral basis, mining and electricity production were up 1.4% and 4.9%, respectively,
while manufacturing production was nearly back to last year's levels.
Indian economy entered a technical recession as Q2 real GDP declined 7.5% YoY in Q2FY21. On
the supply side, GVA growth picked up to -7.0% y-o-y in Q2 vs -22.8% in Q1. Agricultural GVA rose
a robust 3.4% y-o-y while manufacturing GVA growth rebounded sharply to 0.1% y-o-y, from
-33.8% in Q1FY21. Both Personal and Government consumption dragged down the GDP growth.
The gross GST revenue was INR 1.05trn in Nov'20, up 1.4% y/y and flat m-m. All the 28 States and 3 UT's
have decided to go for Option-1 to meet the revenue shortfall arising out of the GST implementation. Under
the terms of Option-1, besides getting the facility of a special window for borrowings to meet the shortfall
arising out of GST implementation, the States are also entitled to unconditional borrowing of 0.5% of GSDP.
The MPC decided to keep all rates unchanged as expected on its December 4, 2020 MPC policy. In a
welcome relief at least to certain quarters of the market, it persisted with its time based dovish forward
guidance as well. There was a view before the policy that the RBI may announce steps to re-anchor the
overnight rate which had fallen substantially below the reverse repo rate for much of November, closer
to the reverse repo rate. The fear was that in doing so, it may end up signaling some sort of a reversal to
the level of accommodation that is currently in play. However, no measures were announced for now to
re-anchor the overnight rate. While pressures on inflation have been noted, the predominant imperative
of nurturing growth impulses at this juncture was well articulated.
Outlook
With the market's mind relieved for now on the overnight anchor, interest with respect to front end
rates should get re-established. A more fruitful approach probably is to envisage that some gentle (and
hopefully non disruptive) reversals to the level of overnight rates is to be expected over the next year or
so, even as the process hasn't started with the December policy. This should be viewed as a transition
of monetary policy from emergency support levels currently to a more sustainable level where it is still
relatively accommodative in light of the weaker trajectory of growth in the 'new normal' that may lie ahead.
Put in the bond market's perspective, the current difference between 10 year bond yield to overnight
rate is roughly around 300 bps. This will likely fall over the year ahead, although it may still be higher
than the last few years' average given higher continued fiscal stress as well as likelihood of relatively
accommodative monetary policy. Given the overnight rate is operating below the reverse repo rate, the
bulk of this adjustment could be made by the very front end. While Long end rates might also normalize,
the magnitude might not be similar as the front end.
The fund manager has to examine the steepness of the curve and position at points where the carry
adjusted for duration seems to be the most optimal. That is to say, even if yields are to go up there are
points on the curve where the extra carry compensates enough for a limited rise in yields so that the
trade still earns better than the rate on offer on (let's say) 1 year treasury bills today. Whereas if such a
rise were to not materialize, then returns from the trade could be considerably more. It is such nuances
that we are considering quite actively in the current context. Consistent with this, we have reverted to
an overweight position in our long preferred 6 - 9 year segment in government bonds, in our actively
managed duration products. Again, these are active mandates and strategy can change at any time.
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