• With the spread of the pandemic and the lockdown during Q1
FY21, earnings for the year FY21 were sharply downgraded.
• However, the swifter than expected economic recovery led to a
more robust Q2 FY21.
• Upgrades exceeded downgrades 3x, a rarity, after years of
earnings disappointment.
• FY21 estimates, quickly rebounded from negative to positive
territory, despite the Q1 debacle.
• The fall during Mar’20 lasted less than 35 trading days, erasing
between 36-43% across the indices – Large, Mid and Small Caps.
Supportive action from Central Banks was quicker.
• As investors searched for stable earnings, rotation from one
sector to another, as exhibited from Apr-Dec’20 phase was
evident.
• Staples after outperforming in Mar-Apr, have underperformed
since then. Pharma and IT services outperformed during
May-Sept; Banks/NBFC, after underperforming from
Mar-Sept,20; outperformed during Oct-Dec’20.
• After the debacle of Mar’20, Small caps outshone the rest of the
market – for the first time since CY17.
• If economic recovery is robust and RBI does not move
aggressively into high real interest zone, Small caps could benefit
the most.