• With the spread of the pandemic and the lockdown during Q1 FY21,
earnings for the year FY21 were sharply downgraded.
• However, the swifter than expected economic recovery led to a
more robust Q2 FY21.
• Upgrades exceeded downgrades 3x, a rarity, after years of earnings
disappointment.
• FY21 estimates, quickly rebounded from negative to positive
territory, despite the Q1 debacle.
• The fall during Mar’20 lasted less than 35 trading days, erasing
between 36-43% across the indices – Large, Mid and Small Caps.
Supportive action from Central Banks was quicker.
• As investors searched for stable earnings, rotation from one sector
to another, as exhibited from Apr-Dec’20 phase was evident.
• Staples after outperforming in Mar-Apr, have underperformed since
then. Pharma and IT services outperformed during May-Sept;
Banks/NBFC, after underperforming from Mar-Sept,20;
outperformed during Oct-Dec’20.
• After the debacle of Mar’20, Small caps outshone the rest of the
market – for the first time since CY17.
• If economic recovery is robust and RBI does not move aggressively
into high real interest zone, Small caps could benefit the most.