• With the spread of the pandemic and the lockdown
during Q1 FY21, earnings for the year FY21 were sharply
downgraded.
• However, the swifter than expected economic recovery
led to a more robust Q2 FY21.
• Upgrades exceeded downgrades 3x, a rarity, after years
of earnings disappointment.
• FY21 estimates, quickly rebounded from negative to
positive territory, despite the Q1 debacle.
• The fall during Mar’20 lasted less than 35 trading days,
erasing between 36-43% across the indices – Large, Mid
and Small Caps. Supportive action from Central Banks was
quicker.
• As investors searched for stable earnings, rotation from
one sector to another, as exhibited from Apr-Dec’20
phase was evident.
• Staples after outperforming in Mar-Apr, have
underperformed since then. Pharma and IT services
outperformed during May-Sept; Banks/NBFC, after
underperforming from Mar-Sept,20; outperformed during
Oct-Dec’20.
• After the debacle of Mar’20, Small caps outshone the rest
of the market – for the first time since CY17.
• If economic recovery is robust and RBI does not move
aggressively into high real interest zone, Small caps could
benefit the most.