• If the factors supporting India’s cyclical rebound come to fruition, a lot
of macro-economic headaches feared at the beginning of the year will
ease. Thus some of the fiscal inflexibilities and associated risks of
sovereign rating downgrades will abate, the external account will build
even further buffers as capital flows remain strong, and hopefully India’s
appeal will percolate to global fixed income investors as well.
• Monetary policy will gradually move from the level of emergency level
accommodation today to one of still high accommodation. This will
likely be a slow process and will involve more discretionary adjustments
to the price of liquidity rather than the quantity of it.
• Yield curves will gradually bear flatten. It is very likely that the bulk of
this adjustment will be made by the very front end rates. This is not to
say that long end rates won’t have to adjust. Rather, the quantum of
adjustment there may be of a relatively smaller magnitude when
compared with rates at the very front end.
• The starting point today is one of a very steep yield curve. Thus unlike in
normal times when the yield curve is quite flat, the decision on duration
isn’t a binary one any more. Rather, one has to examine the steepness of
the curve and position at points where the carry adjusted for duration
seems to be the most optimal.
• Credit spreads, including on lower rated assets, have compressed
meaningfully. These reflect the chase for ‘carry’ in an environment of
abundant liquidity and funds flow, as well as the relatively muted supply
of paper as companies have belt tightened and focused on cash
generation. As activity resumes over the year ahead, issuances will likely
increase thereby pressuring spreads to rise.